The streak is over

The Jays have finally lost while this is my first post in a long time. A lot has changed in the past 2 months. For one, the Jays actually played exciting/meaningful games in the month of September. The Canadian National Soccer team also played a meaningful game and promptly disappointed many with a loss to Mexico. What looked like a promising year for Canadian soccer took a turn for the worst as Canada's World Cup chances are looking bleak.

Back to the Jays though, who have had an up and down year. On the bright side, fans can have an optimistic view at 2009 seeing the kind of streak this ball-club is capable of. The pessimistic side to this point is that the Jays can only play solid baseball once the pressure is off. I tend to agree with that point to a certain extent. I don't think the whole Jays team is like this, just a few players. Alex Rios for one is one of the most "unclutch" players the Jays have. But it is nice to see him hitting for power again. His SLG% is relatively high this year because he's still hitting extra base-hits. But if he starts off next year the same way he did in 2008, JP is going to hear it every Wednesday.

Speaking of Ricciardi, where does he stand for next year? Some fans support him and some do not. At the beginning of the year, I was extremely against every move he made. Not signing Barry Bonds was at the top of that list. I still believe that if the Jays had Bonds they'd have 7-9 more wins this year. Just look at all the one run games the Jays have been in. But as much as I disagreed with his stance on a lot of things, I think JP should be back in 09. If he is let go, this team will go into semi-rebuilding mode. No one else wants this team to be a success more than Ricciardi. He started to make Toronto a contending team back in late 2005 and has only made improvements since then. Simply put, I do not think there is any other guy who could do a better job then him with the group of guys he has now. Besides, this team will be known as "JP's team" until around 2010, maybe longer with Hill, Rios and Wells signed longterm.

The one thing JP won't do is chase after AJ this off-season. Not including Doc, Burnett is my favourite player on the Jays. His stuff is probably top 3 in the Majors, yes even better than Halladay's. And now in a contract year he finally puts it to good use. The Yankees have flat out said they're interested in Burnett and seeing how things have gone this year, there's no doubt they'll shell out Bronx Bombers money for him. Another top team I see in the Burnett sweepstakes is St. Louis who lost out on Burnett in 2005 because the Jays offered him the opt out clause, something the Cards would not do. If Burnett chooses to stay, the Jays will be EXTREMELY deep with their rotation. JP has said about a million times, "we're prepared either way," in terms of AJ staying/going.

If he leaves, the Jays have an abundance of starting pitching to look at in 09. In addition to Doc, Marcum, McGowan and Litsch, the Jays have to give David Purcey a spot right? Well its not that easy. Remember the guy who was taken right ahead of Troy Tulowitzki? He's pitching fairly well in Syracuse and may get a look in Spring Training. Then there's Brett Cecil. He is easily one of the top prospects pitching wise in all of baseball right now. Being a left-hander, the Jays will definitely give him a shot to take a rotation spot. Casey Janssen will also be returning to the team in Spring of 09 but its likely he'll start out in the bullpen. Because McGowan will start 09 on the DL, it is highly possible one of their top prospects will get a look.

Now that the pitching scene is out of the way, what about the Jays achilles heel? The offense has shown signs of life in September but is this just an illusion? Probably not. Lyle Overbay seems to have finally recovered from a John Danks fastball while V-Dub is hitting the ball like it's 2006. The aforementioned Alex Rios is slowly getting his power back and Aaron Hill may be ready for the start of next season. Rod Barajas is doing as well as you could have hoped for a catcher while Scott Rolen hopefully gets surgery in the offseason. That leaves 3 positions. Left-Field, DH and Shortstop. Currently, Adam Lind, Travis Snider and John McDonald occupy the roles. If JP is smart, he'll leave Lind and Snider alone. These guys are pure hitters and can rack up some big numbers if giving the chance. The Shortstop position is really the only weakness from an offensive standpoint. Defensively Johnny Mac is a wizard. But if AJ does opt out, the Jays will have some money to go after some free agent shortstops.

At the top of the list has to be Rafael Furcal (who also serves as the proto-typical lead off man they have been looking for since JP got here) and Orlando Cabrera (who beat out Johnny Mac for the gold glove last year). Both are extremely capable with the bat and may come cheaper than expected. Furcal has been injured for a huge chunk of the season but was on a tear before he went down. The Dodgers have also said they are very interested in retaining him. As for Cabrera, he's had a somewhat off year in terms of average. A .300 plus hitter for the Angels in 2007, hes been sitting around the .270 mark for most of the year. Cabrera will be cheaper than Furcal because he is 3 years older (Cabrera is 33 while Furcal is 30). Also on the radar will be Edgar Renteria who has a team option with the Tigers for 12 million. If the Tigers let him walk, it'll only cost them 3 million. Renteria is probably hoping for the buy-out so he can get out of the American League. His two years of non-National League baseball have been atrocious. He'd have to get a lot of money from an AL team to stay. From a fan's perspective, you would hope the Jays go after Furcal because of the speed and offense he brings to the position. Just think about him and Hill at the top of the order followed by Rios, Wells and Lind.

So with this all in mind, what do I think the Jays will do? JP has a tendency to trust veteran players over the youth so as much as I hate to say it I think Snider will spend most of 2009 in Triple A honing his skills and developing better strike-zone awareness (that is the only part of his game that needs some polishing). Look for a guy like Raul Ibanez to sign on. Hopefully for only 1 year though. The Jays were offering what was believed to be Brandon League and David Purcey for him at the trade deadline but Seattle declined. At the shortstop position, Furcal may be wishful thinking but I think a platoon similar to earlier this year will work with Scutaro/McDonald taking the reigns. Lind should stay in left-field but would likely split time with Ibanez. On the pitching front, I think JP will sign a pitcher. I've always seen Derek Lowe in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform for some reason and think he might get the money Burnett leaves. Something like a 4 year 45 million dollar deal could be reasonable.

Here's my lineup card for your 2009 Toronto Blue Jays:

SS Scutaro (can see Cabrera here but I see Lowe more likely for JP)
2B Hill
CF Wells
LF Lind
RF Rios
DH Ibanez
C Barajas
1B Overbay
3B Rolen

I tried to stay as "right, left, right" as possible but it probably wont. Say it aint so Joe... I feel really bad for Inglett because he has proven he can start.

1 - Roy Halladay
2 - Derek Lowe
3 - Shaun Marcum
4 - David Purcey
5 - Jesse Litsch

McGowan, Cecil and Romero are going to start in 2009. Knowing the Jays, someone in the starting 5 will get injured and one of these guys will take their place. McGowan will come back in May while I see Cecil and Romero starting in September at the latest.

CL - Ryan
SU - Downs
SU - League
RP - Accardo
RP - Janssen
RP - Carlson
LRP- Tallet

Ah the bullpen. The one thing that can be counted on for next year. As much as I'd like to see BJ traded, it probably wont happen. Maybe he'll turn back into "Bazooka BJ" (credit to Jamie Campbell) of 2006.

Prediction: 1st in AL East, 95-67

Yes, you read that right... as long as everyone can stay healthy *knock on wood*.


DD


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